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Simulation of rainfall extremes: fitting to observed annual maxima

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Chris Kilsby, Dr Ahmad Moaven-Hashemi, Professor Enda O'Connell


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Synthetic rainfall series are often used in flood risk estimation and urban drainage system modelling. Whilst low-order properties of the rainfall (mean, variance) can be well reproduced, a remaining difficulty is in reproducing extreme value statistics which are crucial for these applications. The use of third-order moments (skew) in parameterising a Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model is considered, using observed hourly and daily rainfall data. An objective method of fitting using variable weights for different sample statistics is demonstrated. The application is intended for generating long hourly rainfall series, which are assessed by how well the rainfall frequency curves (annual maxima) match those observed. Complications with seasonality and variability in observed data are described, and the paper concludes with suggestions for further developments in the area, in particular for applications involving future climate scenarios.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Kilsby CG, Moaven-Hashemi A, O'Connell PE

Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)

Publication status: Published

Conference Name: First International Conference on Flood Risk

Year of Conference: 2004

Publisher: Institute of Mathematics and its Applications