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Previsione del tempo di occorrenza di una frana

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Gaetano EliaORCiD


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In the framework of landslide risk mitigation, forecasting the time of occurrence (Tf) of a first time landslide is a goal of big social, economic and scientific significance. The task is far from being simple, since it would be practically impossible to account for the great number of controlling variables and factors, which are variously intercorrelated and not all clearly defined. Therefore, a pure “phenomenological” approach based on the observation and interpretation of the monitored data is generally employed in Tf prediction, as it allows to neglect part of the uncertainties involved in the problem. Such an empirical approach infers Tf mainly from the ground surface displacements using regression techniques based on empirical functions. The paper gives an overlook of the predictive methods derived from this approach, which generally provide an easy and quite reliable Tf prediction, although they should be applied with caution and their results interpreted with judgement.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Federico A, Elia G, Fidelibus C

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Giornale di Geologia Applicata

Year: 2009

Volume: 11

Pages: 3-13

Print publication date: 01/01/2009

ISSN (print): 1826-1256

Publisher: Geoitalia, Federazione Italiana di Scienze della Terra


DOI: 10.1474/GGA.2009-11.0-01.0230


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