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Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Jim Hall, Professor Richard DawsonORCiD

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Abstract

Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2-4 degrees C) and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 degrees C) relative to year 2000 levels.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Kriegler E, Hall JW, Held H, Dawson RJ, Schellnhuber HJ

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Year: 2009

Volume: 106

Issue: 13

Pages: 5041-5046

ISSN (print): 0027-8424

ISSN (electronic): 1091-6490

Publisher: National Academy of Sciences

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0809117106

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0809117106

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