Probabilistic Simulation of Long Term Shore Morphology of North Norfolk UK

Walkden, M; Dickson, M; Thomas, J; Hall, J

doi:10.1142/9789814277426_0362

Probabilistic Simulation of Long Term Shore Morphology of North Norfolk UK

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Mike Walkden, Professor Jim Hall

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Abstract

A probabilistic coastal morphological modelling study is described, which forms part of the Regional Coastal Simulator of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The study deals with a 50 km length of the North Norfolk coast (UK) and is integrated with analysis of the coastal flood risk in the adjoining Norfolk Broads. The study employs the SCAPE broad scale systems model of coastal morphology, which here is driven by probabilistic scenarios of sea level rise. Coastal response to alternative management policies are quantified and discussed. These include cliff recession distance over the 21(st) Century and beach volume within the region vulnerable to coastal flooding. Some observations are drawn from the early results presented.