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Using hazard-based models to explain changes in the duration of journey-to-work trips

Lookup NU author(s): Aziza Safour, Dr Dilum Dissanayake, Professor Margaret Carol Bell CBE, Dr Neil Thorpe


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This study aims to contribute to the area of activity-based travel modelling by investigating household daily activity patterns using hazard-based duration models. Recent studies have shown that hazard models could be a powerful tool for activity modelling. The analysis investigates changes in household activity patterns during the weekdays. The models use data from the Tyne and Wear household travel survey conducted between 2003 and 2007. The database consists of travel related activities and individual and household information. Parametric hazard models are chosen to analyse the data. The models are fitted to the data and the fitness is evaluated using adjusted Anderson-Darling test statistics and correlation coefficients. A regression analysis is conducted to capture the impact of individuals’ and households’ socio-demographic characteristics and location and trip making characteristics on the hazard rate of duration of different activities. The early results indicate that the hazard function of different activities possesses similar trends of activity patterns. However, the highest rate of hazard is on the first year followed by the second year of the survey. The parameters indicate that the various activity durations have been affected by the trip-making characteristics more than other characteristics, for example home-based trips have the greatest rate comparing with the other trips.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Safour A, Dissanayake D, Bell MC, Thorpe N

Editor(s): Universities' Transport Studies Group

Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)

Publication status: Published

Conference Name: 41st Annual UTSG Conference

Year of Conference: 2009

Publisher: Universities' Transport Studies Group