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A hidden Markov model for informative dropout in longitudinal response data with crisis states

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Robin Henderson, Professor Richard Boys


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We adopt a hidden state approach for the analysis of longitudinal data subject to dropout. Motivated by two applied studies, we assume that subjects can move between three states: stable, crisis, dropout. Dropout is observed but the other two states are not. During a possibly transient crisis state both the longitudinal response distribution and the probability of dropout can differ from those for the stable state. We adopt a linear mixed effects model with subject-specific trajectories during stable periods and additional random jumps during crises. We place the model in the context of Rubin’s taxonomy and develop the associated likelihood. The methods are illustrated using the two motivating examples.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Spagnoli A, Henderson R, Boys RJ, Houwing-Duistermaat JJ

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Statistics and Probability Letters

Year: 2011

Volume: 81

Issue: 7

Pages: 730-738

Print publication date: 17/02/2011

ISSN (print): 0167-7152

Publisher: Elsevier BV


DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2011.02.005


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