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The Burden of Mortality Attributable to Diabetes : Realistic estimates for the year 2000

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Nigel Unwin, Dr Vincent Connolly


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OBJECTIVE: To estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a computerized generic formal disease model (DisMod II), used by the World Health Organization to assess disease burden through modeling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence, and available published estimates of relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared with people without diabetes. The results were validated with population-based observations and independent estimates of relative risk of death. RESULTS: The excess global mortality attributable to diabetes in the year 2000 was estimated to be 2.9 million deaths, equivalent to 5.2% of all deaths. Excess mortality attributable to diabetes accounted for 2-3% of deaths in poorest countries and over 8% in the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East. In people 35-64 years old, 6-27% of deaths were attributable to diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: These are the first global estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes. Globally, diabetes is likely to be the fifth leading cause of death.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Roglic G, Unwin N, Bennett PH, Mathers C, Tuomilehto J, Nag S, Connolly V, King H

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Diabetes Care

Year: 2005

Volume: 28

Issue: 9

Pages: 2130-2135

ISSN (print): 0149-5992

ISSN (electronic): 1935-5548

Publisher: American Diabetes Association


DOI: 10.2337/diacare.28.9.2130


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