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Quantified scenarios analysis of drivers and impacts of changing flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100.

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Jim Hall

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Abstract

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Hall JW, Evans EP, Penning-Rowsell EC, Sayers PB, Thorne CR, Saul AJ

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards

Year: 2003

Volume: 5

Issue: 3-4

Pages: 51-65

Print publication date: 15/06/2011

ISSN (print): 1464-2867

ISSN (electronic): 1878-5697

Publisher: Pergamon

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hazards.2004.04.002

DOI: 10.1016/j.hazards.2004.04.002

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