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Perturbing a Weather Generator using change factors derived from Regional Climate Model simulations

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Chris Kilsby

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for perturbing Weather Generators (WGs) for future decades and to assess its effectiveness. Here the procedure is applied to the WG implemented within the UKCP09 package and assessed using data from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation which provides a significant "climate change" between a control run period and a distant future. The WG is normally calibrated on observed data. For this study, data from an RCM control period (1961-1990) was used, then perturbed using the procedure. Because only monthly differences between the RCM control and scenario periods are used to perturb the WG, the direct daily RCM scenario may be considered as unseen data to assess how well the perturbation procedure reproduces the direct RCM simulations for the future.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Jones PD, Harpham C, Goodess CM, Kilsby CG

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

Year: 2011

Volume: 18

Issue: 4

Pages: 503-511

Print publication date: 01/01/2011

ISSN (print): 1023-5809

ISSN (electronic): 1607-7946

Publisher: Copernicus GmbH

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-18-503-2011

DOI: 10.5194/npg-18-503-2011

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