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Describing time and age variations in the risk of radiation-induced solid tumour incidence in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors using generalized relative and absolute risk models.

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Colin Muirhead


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Generalized relative and absolute risk models, in which various functions of time and age modify the excess relative or absolute risk of radiation-induced cancer, are fitted to the Japanese atomic bomb survivor cancer incidence data set. Among generalized relative risk models, those in which a product of powers of time since exposure and attained age modify the relative risk provide the best fit. There are indications that the Armitage-Doll model (in its formulation as a generalized relative risk model) provides a poor fit to the data, possibly in part because of increasing age-adjusted cancer incidence rates in the Japanese cohort. Generalized absolute risk models, and in particular models in which either powers of time since exposure and attained age, or powers of time since exposure and age at exposure modify the excess absolute risk, provide a superior fit to any of the generalized relative risk models for all solid cancer sites analysed together. When six cancer subtypes are examined separately, only for respiratory cancers does this finding remain true, and for two other sites (female breast cancer and thyroid cancer) the generalized relative risk model yields a better fit than the generalized absolute risk model.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Little MP, Muirhead CR, Charles MW

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Statistics in Medicine

Year: 1999

Volume: 18

Issue: 1

Pages: 17-33

Print publication date: 15/01/1999

ISSN (print): 0277-6715

ISSN (electronic): 1097-0258

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19990115)18:1<17::AID-SIM991>3.0.CO;2-7


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