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A region-based hierarchical model for extreme rainfall over the UK, incorporating spatial dependence and temporal trend

Lookup NU author(s): Jonathon Atyeo, Dr David WalshawORCiD


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In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for extreme rainfall over the entire U.K. The model is based around a strong regional structure, so that for each of nine distinct physiographic regions, we impose a distinct model for the marginal behaviour that employs site-specific covariate information, and a model for the dependence structure. Using data collected at 204 locations over a 40-year period, the model is designed to meet the challenges posed by the problem, specifically: the distinct extremal behaviour in the different regions; the need to model extremal dependence for up to 25 sites within a region; and the possibility of temporal trends within the extreme rainfall climate. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Atyeo J, Walshaw D

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Environmetrics

Year: 2012

Volume: 23

Issue: 6

Pages: 509-521

Print publication date: 09/08/2012

ISSN (print): 1180-4009

ISSN (electronic): 1099-095X

Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.


DOI: 10.1002/env.2155


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