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Lookup NU author(s): Ross Jackson,
Dr Dewan Islam
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The reason for the research: The paper presents a rolling stock breakdown up to 2050 for the EU27. For this, three scenarios are considered; a) Reference Scenario – extrapolation of current trends without major policy change; b) White Paper 2011 Low Scenario (WPLS) based on a pessimistic view of modal shift targets and c) White Paper 2011 High Scenario (WPHS) based on a full realisation of modal shift targets. Methodology: The research combined both quantitative and qualitative methods. The quantitative research forecasted rail freight volume in tonne-km up to 2050 using freight model TRANS-TOOLS that consists of a sequential trade module, modal split module and a logistics module, forecasts transport demand up to 2030. Then, beyond 2030, meta-models support demand projections up to 2050 using trend extrapolations. Using qualitative research, the International Union of Railways - UIC wagon types are assigned with corresponding NSTR (Nomenclature uniforme des marchandises pour les statistiques de transport) (ten: 0 to 9) commodity types. Expected results: Considering commodity types with the greatest projected average annual growth, there are changes in the type of rail freight in 2050. For example, foodstuffs, typically transported by road, shows very significant growth between 2010 and 2050. Considering net growth of goods moved in billion tonne kilometres (BTKM), the study finds that goods (i.e. bulk commodity- Solid mineral fuels, Crude, manufacturing, building materials) feature rail freight transport heavily at present still feature heavily in 2050 for Reference and Low Scenarios. But for High Scenario (i.e. full realisation of Transport White Paper target of 50% modal shift from road to rail for goods transported over 300km), machinery and transport equipment (i.e. containerised and/or high value cargo) becomes the highest BTKM value. Crude, manufacturing and building materials will be most prominent along the origins-destinations of: Netherlands to Germany, Germany to Italy, Germany to Netherlands, Belgium to France and France to Belgium. The origin destination pairs of: Poland to Germany and Czech Republic to Germany will also mostly consist of the transportation of solid mineral fuels. The study also finds that the following UIC wagon types will feature rail freight transport in 2050: Flat Wagons, Open Top Wagons and Covered Wagons. Potential for implementation: The potential for implementation is high, as the research will help the direct stakeholders to prepare rail transport system for 2050. Impact on railway business: The impact for the rail freight sector is significant, as the rolling stock breakdown provides advance information on the future rolling stock requirements. What is new about the research: This is a first attempt in the EU27 to estimate rolling stock breakdown for 2050 based on a full and partial realisation of the EU 2011 White Paper objectives for modal shift. The rolling stock breakdown is a unique effort to help rail freight businesses such as operators, rolling stock manufacturers and leasing companies to plan for a 2050 rail future. Potential for International Collaboration: Global actors must plan ahead and work together to achieve modal shift to rail.
Author(s): Jackson R, Islam DMZ, Robinson M, Phil M
Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)
Publication status: Published
Conference Name: World Congress on Railway Research 2013
Year of Conference: 2013