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Necessity of rolling stock in 2050 to meet European Transport White paper 2011 target

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Dewan Islam, Ross Jackson, Mathew Robinson


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The European Transport White paper 2011 sets a target for modal shift of 30% by 2030 and 50% by 2050 from road freight to other modes such as rail or waterborne transport for distances over 300 km. By exploring the current state of the current rolling stock fleet and its productivity level, the paper conducts research to identify the rolling stock requirements in 2050 for the EU27 combining quantitative and qualitative research methods. Considering the Transport White paper 2011 targets, three scenarios are considered; a) Reference Scenario – extrapolation of current trends without major policy change; b) White Paper 2011 Low Scenario (WPLS) based on a pessimistic view of the modal shift targets and c) White Paper 2011 High Scenario (WPHS) based on the full realisation of modal shift targets. To determine the future fleet size, the current paper also conducts a sensitivity analysis assuming 60% productivity level as a base.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Islam DMZ, Jackson R, Robinson M

Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)

Publication status: Published

Conference Name: 5th Transport Research Arena Conference: Transport Solutions: From Research to Deployment

Year of Conference: 2014