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A two decade dementia incidence comparison from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies I and II

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Fiona Matthews, Professor Bloss Stephan, Professor Dame Louise Robinson, Emerita Professor Carol Jagger, Professor Carol Brayne



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Influential reports on dementia suggest large increases in future years. No multicentre population-based study powered to detect changes over time has reported dementia incidence. MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (CFAS) undertook baseline interviews in populations aged 65+ years in England and Wales (1989-1994). Three areas (CFAS I) were selected for new sampling two decades later (2008-2011) with same geographical boundaries, sampling and approach methods (CFAS II). At two years CFAS I interviewed 5156 (76% response) with 5288 interviewed in CFAS II (74% response). Here we report a 20 % drop in incidence (95% CI 0%-40%), driven by a reduction in men across all ages above 65. In the UK we estimate 189,000 new dementia cases per year. This study was uniquely designed to test for differences across geography and time. A reduction of age-specific incidence means that the numbers of people estimated to develop dementia in any year has remained relatively stable.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Matthews FE, Stephan BCM, Robinson L, Jagger C, Barnes LE, Arthur A, Brayne C, Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS) Collaboration

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Nature Communications

Year: 2016

Volume: 7

Online publication date: 19/04/2016

Acceptance date: 21/03/2016

Date deposited: 02/02/2016

ISSN (electronic): 2041-1723

Publisher: Nature Publishing Group


DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11398


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