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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Jim Hall,
Professor Richard Dawson,
Dr Xingzheng Wu
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© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015. All rights reserved. Coastal systems are characterised by variability and interdependencies at a range of scales. On the Norfolk coast from Weybourne to Winterton in SMP6, variations in sediment supply, from cliff erosion and beach nourishment, have a profound influence upon the probability of failure of the flood defences that protect the large area of coastal lowlands, including the Norfolk Broads. The risk of flooding is therefore influenced by large-scale and long-term changes in sediment supply as well as by short-term fluctuations which are dominated by the arrival of extreme storms. The reliability of the flood defences also plays a crucial mediating role on the probability of flooding. When flooding does occur, the extent and severity of damage is influenced by patterns of inundation and the human and economic vulnerability of the communities that are flooded. This chapter brings together science from several of the preceding chapters in order to analyse how the risks of flooding and erosion will change in the future. The analysis makes use of a Monte Carlo simulation methodology, which takes multiple simulations of beach levels (from the SCAPE model described in Chap. 7) and combines this with reliability analysis of the flood defence system, quantification of the inundation depth and extent (from Chap. 8) and changes in coastal vulnerability and land use (from Chap. 4). The evolution of future flood risk is sensitive to the quantity of beach sediment, from eroding cliffs or artificial beach nourishment, underlining the importance of strategic coastal management.
Author(s): Hall JW, Dawson RJ, Wu XZ
Publication type: Book Chapter
Publication status: Published
Book Title: Broad Scale Coastal Simulation: New Techniques to Understand and Manage Shorelines in the Third Millennium
Print publication date: 26/08/2015
Acceptance date: 01/01/1900
Series Title: Advances in Global Change Research
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Library holdings: Search Newcastle University Library for this item