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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Alessio Tei
This is the authors' accepted manuscript of an article that has been published in its final definitive form by Emerald, 2018.
For re-use rights please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
Economic studies have always underlined the cyclical trends of many industries and their different relations to the macro-economic cycles. Shipping is one of those industries and it has been often characterised by peaks that influenced both the trade patterns and the industry investment structure (e.g. fleet, shipyard activity, freight rates). One of the main issues related with the cycles is the effect on overcapacity and prices for newbuilding and how the understanding of these patterns can help in preventing short hand strategies. The goal of this paper is then to evaluate different effects of business elements on shipbuilding activity, in relation to different economic cycle phases.This paper proposes a non-linear econometric model to identify the relations between the shipbuilding and the economic cycles over the last 30 years. The research focuses on identifying the cycle characteristics and understanding the asymmetric effect of economic and business related variables on its development.The study underlines the presence of an asymmetric effect of several business variables on the shipbuilding productions, depending on the cyclical phases (i.e. market expansion or economic slowdown). Moreover, lagged effects seem to be stronger than contemporaneous variables.The paper is a first attempt of using non-linear modelling to shipbuilding cycles, giving indications that could be included in relevant investment policies.
Author(s): Ferrari C, Marchese M, Tei A
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Maritime Business Review
Year: 2018
Volume: 3
Issue: 2
Pages: 112-127
Online publication date: 28/03/2018
Acceptance date: 07/02/2018
Date deposited: 15/02/2018
ISSN (print): 2397-3757
ISSN (electronic): 2397-3757
Publisher: Emerald
URL: https://doi.org/10.1108/MABR-01-2018-0002
DOI: 10.1108/MABR-01-2018-0002
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