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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Daniel StowORCiD, Professor Fiona MatthewsORCiD, Professor Dame Louise Robinson, Professor Barbara HanrattyORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Background: Recognising that a patient is nearing the end of life is essential, to enable professional carers to discuss prognosis and preferences for end of life care. Objective: Investigate whether an electronic frailty index (eFI) generated from routinely collected data, can be used to predict mortality at an individual level. Design: Historical prospective case control study Setting: UK primary care electronic health records Subjects: 13,149 individuals age 75 and over who died between 01/01/2015 and 01/01/2016, 1:1 matched by age and sex to individuals with no record of death in the same time period Methods: Two subsamples were randomly selected to enable development and validation of the association between eFI three months prior to death and mortality. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analyses were used to examine diagnostic accuracy of eFI at three months prior to death. Results: An eFI>0·19 predicted mortality in the development sample at 75% sensitivity and 69% area under received operating curve (AUC). In the validation dataset this cut point gave 76% sensitivity, 53% specificity. Conclusions: The eFI measured at a single time point has low predictive value for individual risk of death, even three months prior to death. Although the eFI is a strong predictor or mortality at a population level, its use for individuals is far less clear
Author(s): Stow D, Matthews FE, Barclay S, Iliffe S, Clegg A, De Biase S, Robinson L, Hanratty B
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Age and Ageing
Year: 2018
Volume: 47
Issue: 4
Pages: 564-569
Print publication date: 01/07/2018
Online publication date: 13/03/2018
Acceptance date: 05/01/2018
Date deposited: 17/03/2018
ISSN (print): 0002-0729
ISSN (electronic): 1468-2834
Publisher: Oxford University Press
URL: https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afy022
DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afy022
PubMed id: 29546362
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