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A multi-scale urban integrated assessment framework for climate change studies: A flooding application

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Alistair FordORCiD, Professor Stuart Barr, Professor Richard DawsonORCiD, James Virgo



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


In order to assess the potential future impacts of climate change on urban areas, tools to assist decision-makers to understand future patterns of risk are required. This paper presents a modelling framework to allow the downscaling of national- and regional-scale population and employment projections to local scale land-use changes, providing scenarios of future socio-economic change. A coupled spatial interaction population model and cellular automata land development model produces future urbanisation maps based on planning policy scenarios. The framework is demonstrated on Greater London, UK, with a set of future population and land-use scenarios being tested against flood risk under climate change. The framework is developed in Python using open-source databases and is designed to be transferable to other cities worldwide.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Ford A, Barr S, Dawson R, Virgo J, Batty M, Hall J

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems

Year: 2019

Volume: 75

Pages: 229-243

Print publication date: 01/05/2019

Online publication date: 28/02/2019

Acceptance date: 14/02/2019

Date deposited: 06/03/2019

ISSN (print): 0198-9715

Publisher: Elsevier


DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.02.005


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