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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Diana Maria Contreras Mojica
This is the final published version of a conference proceedings (inc. abstract) that has been published in its final definitive form by Global Risk Forum (GRF) Davos, 2016.
For re-use rights please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
The internal armed conflict in Colombia reduces the resilience of the community to face the consequences of climate phenomena such as La Niña, which occurred in Colombia, between 2010 and 2011. I selected a case study area in Colombia based on previous studies in the topic of deforestation due to illegal crops. Correlation and regression analysis are employed to demonstrate the relationship between the rates of deforestation, the number of affected households and the events of violence. The statistical analysis explores the rate of deforestation between 2002 and 2007, the number of affected households due to La Niña phenomenon in 2010-2011, and the number of events related with armed violence occurred between 2012 and 2013. A significant correlation (+0.865) exists between the number of La Niña affected households, and the number of violent events two years later. No correlation exists between the rate of deforestation, neither with the number of affected households, nor with the events of violence. Moreover, we demonstrated that the number of households affected accounts for 74.8% in the number of events related with armed violence. In conclusion, the problem is not the hazard or the intensity of the phenomenon, the real problem is the low resilience of the communities affected by La Niña that are simultaneously involved in the internal conflict of Colombia. Communities involved in forced displacement are not able to construct social capital, in order to develop capacity to anticipate, respond to, and recover from hydro-meteorological events related to climate change, or any other natural phenomena.
Author(s): Contreras D, Contreras S
Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)
Publication status: Published
Conference Name: 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference (IDRC Davos 2016)
Year of Conference: 2016
Pages: 147-150
Print publication date: 30/09/2019
Acceptance date: 31/03/2016
Date deposited: 28/03/2019
Publisher: Global Risk Forum (GRF) Davos
URL: https://idrc.info/fileadmin/user_upload/idrc/proceedings2016/Extended%20Abstracts%20IDRC%202016_final2408.pdf
