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Assurance for sample size determination in binomial reliability demonstration testing

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Kevin Wilson, Dr Malcolm Farrow


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Frequently,manufacturers are required to demonstrate that productsmeet reliability targets. A typicalway of doing this is to use reliability demonstration tests (RDTs), in which a number of products are put ontest and the test is passed if a critical number or fewer fail. There are various methods for determining thesample size for such tests. Traditionally this was based on the size of a hypothesis test following the RDT.More recently, Bayesian approaches have been proposed based on the idea of risk criteria. However, theseapproaches do not lead to a single, optimal sample size and conflate the choice of sample size for the test andthe analysis to be undertaken once the test has been conducted. In this paper we offer an alternative approachto sample size determination based on the idea of assurance. This approach can overcome each of these issueswith risk criteria. Assurance chooses the sample size to answer the question: “What is the probability that theRDT will result in a successful outcome?”We demonstrate the use of assurance for sample size calculations inbinomial RDTs and discuss the specification of prior distributions for the design and analysis of the test.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Wilson KJ, Farrow M

Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)

Publication status: Published

Conference Name: 10th IMA International Conference on Modelling in Industrial Maintenance and Reliability

Year of Conference: 2018

Acceptance date: 07/03/2018

ISSN: 978-0-905091-32-7


Library holdings: Search Newcastle University Library for this item

ISBN: 9780905091327