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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND).
© 2017 Elsevier B.V. The poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae, is the most significant pest of egg laying hens in many parts of the world. Control of D. gallinae could be greatly improved with advanced Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities. The development of a model forecasting the pests’ population dynamics in laying hen facilities without and post-treatment will contribute to this advanced IPM and could consequently improve implementation of IPM by farmers. The current work describes the development and demonstration of a model which can follow and forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae in laying hen facilities given the variation of the population growth of D. gallinae within and between flocks. This high variation could partly be explained by house temperature, flock age, treatment, and hen house. The total population growth variation within and between flocks, however, was in part explained by temporal variation. For a substantial part this variation was unexplained. A dynamic adaptive model (DAP) was consequently developed, as models of this type are able to handle such temporal variations. The developed DAP model can forecast the population dynamics of D. gallinae, requiring only current flock population monitoring data, temperature data and information of the dates of any D. gallinae treatment. Importantly, the DAP model forecasted treatment effects, while compensating for location and time specific interactions, handling the variability of these parameters. The characteristics of this DAP model, and its compatibility with different mite monitoring methods, represent progression from existing approaches for forecasting D. gallinae that could contribute to advancing improved Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for D. gallinae in laying hen facilities.
Author(s): Mul MF, van Riel JW, Roy L, Zoons J, Andre G, George DR, Meerburg BG, Dicke M, van Mourik S, Groot Koerkamp PWG
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Veterinary Parasitology
Year: 2017
Volume: 245
Pages: 128-140
Print publication date: 15/10/2017
Online publication date: 25/07/2017
Acceptance date: 23/07/2017
Date deposited: 25/07/2019
ISSN (print): 0304-4017
ISSN (electronic): 1873-2550
Publisher: Elsevier BV
URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vetpar.2017.07.027
DOI: 10.1016/j.vetpar.2017.07.027
PubMed id: 28969831
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