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Probabilistic adaptive model predictive power pinch analysis (PoPA) energy management approach to uncertainty

Lookup NU author(s): Bassey Nyong-Bassey, Professor Damian Giaouris, Dr Haris Patsios, Dr Shady Gadoue



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC-ND).


This paper proposes a probabilistic power pinch analysis (PoPA) approach based on Monte–Carlo simulation (MCS) for energy management of hybrid energy systems uncertainty. The systems power grand composite curve is formulated with the chance constraint method to consider load stochasticity. In a predictive control horizon, the power grand composite curve is shaped based on the pinch analysis approach. The robust energy management strategy effected in a control horizon is inferred from the likelihood of a bounded predicted power grand composite curve, violating the pinch. Furthermore, the response of the system using the energy management strategies (EMS) of the proposed method is evaluated against the day-ahead (DA) and adaptive power pinch strategy.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Nyong-Bassey BE, Giaouris D, Patsios H, Gadoue S, Papadopoulos AI, Seferlis P, Voutetakis S, Papadopoulou S

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: The Journal of Engineering

Year: 2019

Volume: 2019

Issue: 17

Pages: 4288-4292

Print publication date: 17/06/2019

Online publication date: 04/04/2019

Acceptance date: 31/07/2018

Date deposited: 22/01/2020

ISSN (print): 2051-3305

Publisher: The Institution of Engineering and Technology


DOI: 10.1049/joe.2018.8154


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