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Advancing Space-Time Simulation of Random Fields: From Storms to Cyclones and Beyond

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Francesco Serinaldi, Professor Emilio Porcu



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Realistic stochastic simulation of hydro-environmental fluxes in space and time, such as rainfall, is challenging yet of paramount importance to inform environmental risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty. Here, we advance random field simulation by introducing the concepts of general velocity fields and general anisotropy transformations. This expands the capabilities of the so-called Complete Stochastic Modeling Solution (CoSMoS) framework enabling the simulation of random fields preserving: (1) any non-Gaussian marginal distributions, (2) any spatiotemporal correlation structure, (3) general advection expressed by velocity fields with locally varying speed and direction, and (4) locally varying anisotropy. We also introduce new copula-based spatiotemporal correlation structures and provide conditions guaranteeing their positive definiteness. To illustrate the potential of CoSMoS, we simulate random fields with complex patterns and motion mimicking rainfall storms moving across an area, spiraling fields resembling weather cyclones, fields converging to (or diverging from) a point, and colliding air masses. The proposed methodology is implemented in the freely available CoSMoS R package.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Papalexiou SM, Serinaldi F, Porcu E

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Water Resources Research

Year: 2021

Volume: 57

Issue: 8

Print publication date: 01/08/2021

Online publication date: 24/05/2021

Acceptance date: 19/05/2021

Date deposited: 20/05/2021

ISSN (print): 0043-1397

ISSN (electronic): 1944-7973

Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.


DOI: 10.1029/2020WR029466


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