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Predicting Frailty Condition in Elderly Using Multidimensional Socioclinical Databases

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Giacomo BergamiORCiD


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Smart cities face the challenge of combining sustainable national welfare with high living standards. In the last decades, life expectancy increased globally, leading to various age-related issues in almost all developed countries. Frailty affects elderly who are experiencing daily life limitations due to cognitive and functional impairments and represents a remarkable burden for national health systems. In this paper, we proposed two different predictive models for frailty by exploiting 12 socioclinical databases. Emergency hospitalization or all-cause mortality within a year were used as surrogates of frailty. The first model was able to assign a frailty risk score to each subject older than 65 years old, identifying five different classes for tailor made interventions. The second prediction model assigned a worsening risk score to each subject in the first nonfrail class, namely the probability to move in a higher frailty class within the year. We conducted a retrospective cohort study based on the whole elderly population of the Municipality of Bologna, Italy. We created a baseline cohort of 95 368 subjects for the frailty risk model and a baseline cohort of 58 789 subjects for the worsening risk model, respectively. To evaluate the predictive ability of our models through calibration and discrimination estimates, we used, respectively, a six-year and a four-year observation period. Good discriminatory power and calibration were obtained, demonstrating a good predictive ability of the models.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Bertini F, Bergami G, Montesi D, Veronese G, Marchesini G, Pandolfi P

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Proceedings of the IEEE

Year: 2018

Volume: 106

Issue: 4

Pages: 723-737

Print publication date: 01/04/2018

Online publication date: 05/02/2018

Acceptance date: 05/02/2018

ISSN (print): 0018-9219

ISSN (electronic): 1558-2256

Publisher: IEEE


DOI: 10.1109/JPROC.2018.2791463


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