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A scoring system for predicting malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a multicenter EUROPEAN validation

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Keno Mentor, Sanjay PandanaboyanaORCiD


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© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.Purpose: A preoperative estimate of the risk of malignancy for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) is important. The present study carries out an external validation of the Shin score in a European multicenter cohort. Methods: An observational multicenter European study from 2010 to 2015. All consecutive patients undergoing surgery for IPMN at 35 hospitals with histological-confirmed IPMN were included. Results: A total of 567 patients were included. The score was significantly associated with the presence of malignancy (p < 0.001). In all, 64% of the patients with benign IPMN had a Shin score < 3 and 57% of those with a diagnosis of malignancy had a score ≥ 3. The relative risk (RR) with a Shin score of 3 was 1.37 (95% CI: 1.07–1.77), with a sensitivity of 57.1% and specificity of 64.4%. Conclusion: Patients with a Shin score ≤ 1 should undergo surveillance, while patients with a score ≥ 4 should undergo surgery. Treatment of patients with Shin scores of 2 or 3 should be individualized because these scores cannot accurately predict malignancy of IPMNs. This score should not be the only criterion and should be applied in accordance with agreed clinical guidelines.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Manuel-Vazquez A, Balakrishnan A, Agami P, Andersson B, Berrevoet F, Besselink MG, Boggi U, Caputo D, Carabias A, Carrion-Alvarez L, Franco CC, Coppola A, Dasari BVM, Diaz-Mercedes S, Feretis M, Fondevila C, Fusai GK, Garcea G, Gonzabay V, Bravo MAG, Gorris M, Hendrikx B, Hidalgo-Salinas C, Kadam P, Karavias D, Kauffmann E, Kourdouli A, La Vaccara V, van Laarhoven S, Leighton J, Liem MSL, Machairas N, Magouliotis D, Mahmoud A, Marino MV, Massani M, Requena PM, Mentor K, Napoli N, Nijhuis JHT, Nikov A, Nistri C, Nunes V, Ruiz EO, Pandanaboyana S, Saborido BP, Pohnan R, Popa M, Perez BS, Bueno FS, Serrablo A, Serradilla-Martin M, Skipworth JRA, Soreide K, Symeonidis D, Zacharoulis D, Zelga P, Aliseda D, Santiago MJC, Mancilla CF, Fragua RL, Hughes DL, Llorente CP, Lesurtel M, Gallagher T, Ramia JM

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery

Year: 2022

Volume: 407

Pages: 3447-3455

Print publication date: 01/12/2022

Online publication date: 06/10/2022

Acceptance date: 14/09/2022

ISSN (print): 1435-2443

ISSN (electronic): 1435-2451

Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH


DOI: 10.1007/s00423-022-02687-2

PubMed id: 36198881


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