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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Max RobinsonORCiD
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© 2023 UICC. Head and neck cancer is often diagnosed late and prognosis for most head and neck cancer patients remains poor. To aid early detection, we developed a risk prediction model based on demographic and lifestyle risk factors, human papillomavirus (HPV) serological markers and genetic markers. A total of 10 126 head and neck cancer cases and 5254 controls from five North American and European studies were included. HPV serostatus was determined by antibodies for HPV16 early oncoproteins (E6, E7) and regulatory early proteins (E1, E2, E4). The data were split into a training set (70%) for model development and a hold-out testing set (30%) for model performance evaluation, including discriminative ability and calibration. The risk models including demographic, lifestyle risk factors and polygenic risk score showed a reasonable predictive accuracy for head and neck cancer overall. A risk model that also included HPV serology showed substantially improved predictive accuracy for oropharyngeal cancer (AUC = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.92-0.95 in men and AUC = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95 in women). The 5-year absolute risk estimates showed distinct trajectories by risk factor profiles. Based on the UK Biobank cohort, the risks of developing oropharyngeal cancer among 60 years old and HPV16 seropositive in the next 5 years ranged from 5.8% to 14.9% with an average of 8.1% for men, 1.3% to 4.4% with an average of 2.2% for women. Absolute risk was generally higher among individuals with heavy smoking, heavy drinking, HPV seropositivity and those with higher polygenic risk score. These risk models may be helpful for identifying people at high risk of developing head and neck cancer.
Author(s): Budhathoki S, Diergaarde B, Liu G, Olshan A, Ness A, Waterboer T, Virani S, Basta P, Bender N, Brenner N, Dudding T, Hayes N, Hope A, Huang SH, Hueniken K, Kanterewicz B, McKay JD, Pring M, Thomas S, Wisniewski K, Thomas S, Brhane Y, Agudo A, Alemany L, Lagiou A, Barzan L, Canova C, Conway DI, Healy CM, Holcatova I, Lagiou P, Macfarlane GJ, Macfarlane TV, Polesel J, Richiardi L, Robinson M, Znaor A, Brennan P, Hung RJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: International Journal of Cancer
Year: 2023
Volume: 152
Issue: 10
Pages: 2069-2080
Print publication date: 15/05/2023
Online publication date: 24/01/2023
Acceptance date: 23/12/2022
ISSN (print): 0020-7136
ISSN (electronic): 1097-0215
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc.
URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.34444
DOI: 10.1002/ijc.34444
PubMed id: 36694401
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