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Actuarial and clinical assessment of risk in sex offenders

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Donald Grubin

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Abstract

In this article, actuarial and clinical approaches to risk assessment are reviewed. The benefits and shortcomings of each are examined together with the need to turn statistical significance into clinical relevance. Given the low base rate of sex offending behavior the heterogeneity of sex offenders, and the variety of contexts in which sex offenses occur it is argued that neither an actuarial or a clinical approach on its own can, even in theory, provide a reliable means of assessing risk in sexual offenders. This is illustrated in relation to sadistic sexual offenders and the role of fantasy in offending It is suggested that attention to both phenomenology and actuarial statistics is needed if risk assessment is to have relevance in individual cases.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Grubin D

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Journal of Interpersonal Violence

Year: 1999

Volume: 14

Issue: 3

Pages: 331-343

Print publication date: 01/03/1999

ISSN (print): 0886-2605

ISSN (electronic): 1552-6518

Publisher: Sage Publications, Inc.

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/088626099014003007

DOI: 10.1177/088626099014003007

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