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No evidence that genetic predictors of susceptibility predict changes in core outcomes in JIA

Lookup NU author(s): Emerita Professor Helen Foster, Dr Flora McErlane



This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0).


© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.Objectives: The clinical progression of JIA is unpredictable. Knowing who will develop severe disease could facilitate rapid intensification of therapies. We use genetic variants conferring susceptibility to JIA to predict disease outcome measures. Methods: A total of 713 JIA patients with genotype data and core outcome variables (COVs) at diagnosis (baseline) and 1 year follow-up were identified from the Childhood Arthritis Prospective Study (CAPS). A weighted genetic risk score (GRS) was generated, including all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously associated with JIA susceptibility (P-value < 5×10-08). We used multivariable linear regression to test the GRS for association with COVS (limited joint count, active joint count, physician global assessment, parent/patient general evaluation, childhood HAQ and ESR) at baseline and change in COVS from baseline to 1 year, adjusting for baseline COV and International League of Associations of Rheumatology (ILAR) category. The GRS was split into quintiles to identify high (quintile 5) and low (quintile 1) risk groups. Results: Patients in the high-risk group for the GRS had a younger age at presentation (median low risk 7.79, median high risk 3.51). No association was observed between the GRS and any outcome measures at 1 year follow-up or baseline. Conclusion: For the first time we have used all known JIA genetic susceptibility loci (P=<5×10-08) in a GRS to predict changes in disease outcome measured over time. Genetic susceptibility variants are poor predictors of changes in core outcome measures, it is likely that genetic factors predicting disease outcome are independent to those predicting susceptibility. The next step will be to conduct a genome-wide association analysis of JIA outcome.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Yarwood A, Shoop-Worrall S, Lopez-Isac E, Smith SL, Morris AP, Baildam E, Chieng A, Cleary G, Ciurtin C, Davidson JE, Foster HE, Ioannou Y, McErlane F, Wedderburn LR, Hyrich K, Thomson W, Bowes JD, Tordoff M, Hyrich KL, Thomson W, Eyre S

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Rheumatology

Year: 2022

Volume: 61

Issue: 10

Pages: 4136-4144

Print publication date: 01/10/2022

Online publication date: 07/01/2022

Acceptance date: 15/12/2021

Date deposited: 09/06/2023

ISSN (print): 1462-0324

ISSN (electronic): 1462-0332

Publisher: Oxford University Press


DOI: 10.1093/rheumatology/keab942

PubMed id: 35015833


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Funder referenceFunder name
Great Ormond Street Hospital Children’s Charity
Medical Research Council
Olivia’s Vision
Versus Arthritis