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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD
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Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human health, economic activities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. It is therefore crucial to anticipate extremes and their impacts to allow for preparedness and emergency measures. There is indeed potential for probabilistic subseasonal prediction on time scales of several weeks for many extreme events. Here we provide an overview of subseasonal predictability for case studies of some of the most prominent extreme events across the globe using the ECMWF S2S prediction system: heatwaves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and tropical and extratropical cyclones. The considered heatwaves exhibit predictability on time scales of 3–4 weeks, while this time scale is 2–3 weeks for cold spells. Precipitation extremes are the least predictable among the considered case studies. Tropical cyclones, on the other hand, can exhibit probabilistic predictability on time scales of up to 3 weeks, which in the presented cases was aided by remote precursors such as the Madden–Julian oscillation. For extratropical cyclones, lead times are found to be shorter. These case studies clearly illustrate the potential for event-dependent advance warnings for a wide range of extreme events. The subseasonal predictability of extreme events demonstrated here allows for an extension of warning horizons, provides advance information to impact modelers, and informs communities and stakeholders affected by the impacts of extreme weather events.
Author(s): Domeisen DIV, White CJ, Afargan-Gertsman H, Munoz AG, Janiga MA, Vitart F, Wulff CO, Antoine S, Ardilouze C, Batte L, Bloomfield HC, Brayshaw DJ, Camargo SJ, Chartlon-Perez A, Collins D, Cowan T, del Mar Chaves M, Ferranti L, Gomez R, Gonzalez PLM, Gonzalez Romero C, Infanti JM, Karozis S, Kim H, Kolstad EW, LaJoie E, Lledo L, Magnusson L, Malguzzi P, Manrique-Sunen A, Mastrangelo D, Materia S, Medina H, Palma L, Pineda LE, Sfetsos A, Sun SW, Soret A, Strazzo S, Tian D
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Bulletin of the American Meterological Society
Year: 2022
Volume: 103
Issue: 6
Pages: E1473-E1501
Print publication date: 01/06/2022
Online publication date: 14/06/2022
Acceptance date: 16/02/2022
ISSN (print): 0003-0007
ISSN (electronic): 1520-0477
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
URL: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0221.1
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