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Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).

Abstract

European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia, and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast data sets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill. 10.1029/2020GL092360

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Author(s): Schuhen N, Schaller N, Bloomfield HC, Brayshaw DJ, Lledo L, Cionni I, Sillmann J

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Geophysical Research Letters

Year: 2022

Volume: 49

Issue: 11

Print publication date: 16/06/2022

Online publication date: 27/05/2022

Acceptance date: 21/05/2022

Date deposited: 23/08/2023

ISSN (print): 0094-8276

ISSN (electronic): 1944-8007

Publisher: American Geophysical Union

URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360

DOI: 10.1029/2020GL092360

Data Access Statement: ERA-20C long-term reanalysis data can be obtained from ECMWF (2019) via https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-20c under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). ASF-20C hindcast ensemble data are available from Weisheimer and O’Reilly (2019) via https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/6e1c3df49f644a0f812818080bed5e45 under the Open Government License v3.0. ERA-Interim reanalysis data, which was used to define the teleconnection patterns, are published at ECMWF (2011) via https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).

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