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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
The transition towards decarbonized power systems requires accounting for the impacts of the climate variability and climate change on renewable energy sources. With the growing share of wind and solar power in the European power system and their strong weather dependence, balancing the energy demand and supply becomes a great challenge. We characterize energy compound events, defined as periods of simultaneous low renewable production of wind and solar power, and high electricity demand. Using a logistic regression approach, we examine the influence of meteorological and atmospheric drivers on energy compound events. Moreover, we assess the spatial coherence of energy compound events that pose a major challenge within an interconnected power grid, as they can affect multiple countries simultaneously. On average, European countries are exposed to winter energy compound events more than twice per year. The combination of extremely low temperatures and low wind speeds is associated with a higher probability of occurrence of energy compound events. Furthermore, we show that blocked weather regimes have a major influence on energy compound events. In particular, Greenland and European blocking lead to widespread energy compound events that affect multiple countries at the same time. Our results highlight the relevance of weather regimes resulting in synchronous spatial energy compound events, which might pose a greater risk within a potential fully interconnected European grid.
Author(s): Otero N, Martius O, Allen S, Bloomfield HC, Schaefli B
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Meteorological Applications
Year: 2022
Volume: 29
Issue: 5
Online publication date: 13/09/2022
Acceptance date: 21/07/2022
Date deposited: 23/11/2023
ISSN (print): 1350-4827
ISSN (electronic): 1469-8080
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd
URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2089
DOI: 10.1002/met.2089
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