An interactive tool for enhancing hospital capacity predictions using an epidemiological model

Gibson, F; Fabbro, R; Rahat, A; Torsney-Weir, T; Archambault, D; Gravenor, M; Lucini, B

doi:10.1145/3449726.3462738

An interactive tool for enhancing hospital capacity predictions using an epidemiological model

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Daniel Archambault ORCiD

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Abstract

© 2021 Owner/Author. Hospital managers have limited resources, and they have to plan on how best to allocate these resources based on predicted demand, which is often based on linear or exponential models. In this paper, we propose an interactive tool that produces a forecast of bed occupancy based on an epidemiological model. We optimise this model to fit recently observed data, and interactivity is conferred through a controllable parameter of the model such that users can readily investigate hypothetical scenarios for planning purposes. This study was designed with the Welsh National Health Service, and was born out of their practical need of accurately modelling hospital occupancy during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.