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Using MI-LASSO to study populist radical right voting in times of pandemic

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Ka Ming ChanORCiD

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Abstract

As immigration issues waned in salience during the COVID-19 pandemic, populist radical right (PRR) parties repositionedthemselves by politicizing various pandemic policies. In light of this changing political landscape, scholars have analyzed whatfactors are associated with PRR voting. Yet, most studies focus on small sets of covariates that could easily ignore other keydeterminants. To address this limitation, we use MI-LASSO logistic regression, which is a more inductive data-drivenapproach that can incorporate a huge number of covariates. Our research analyzes the key determinants of voting for thePeople’s Party of Canada—a PRR party that rose rapidly during the pandemic. Using the 2021 Canadian Election Studydataset (N= 14,841), we confirm that PRR voters in the pandemic were both protest and policy-oriented voters. Theywere protest voters since anti-establishment attitudes consistently correlate with their vote choice. On the other hand,PRR voters’policy concern was about pandemic policies rather than immigration, as nativist attitudes never emerge as keydeterminants. Additionally, we uncover that the ideological placement of the mainstream right party and the defense of hatespeech are strong correlates, while conventional variables like sociodemographics are not. Thesefindings enrich ourunderstanding of PRR voting during the pandemic


Publication metadata

Author(s): Chan KM, Stephenson LB

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Research & Politics

Year: 2024

Volume: 11

Issue: 1

Online publication date: 24/01/2024

Acceptance date: 22/12/2023

Date deposited: 05/02/2024

ISSN (print): 2053-1680

ISSN (electronic): 2053-1680

Publisher: Sage

URL: https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680241228358

DOI: 10.1177/205316802412283


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