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Association of latent class analysis-derived multimorbidity clusters with adverse health outcomes in patients with multiple long-term conditions: comparative results across three UK cohorts

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Lewis SteellORCiD

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Abstract

© 2024 The AuthorsBackground: It remains unclear how to meaningfully classify people living with multimorbidity (multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs)), beyond counting the number of conditions. This paper aims to identify clusters of MLTCs in different age groups and associated risks of adverse health outcomes and service use. Methods: Latent class analysis was used to identify MLTCs clusters in different age groups in three cohorts: Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank (SAIL) (n = 1,825,289), UK Biobank (n = 502,363), and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) (n = 49,186). Incidence rate ratios (IRR) for MLTC clusters were computed for: all-cause mortality, hospitalisations, and general practice (GP) use over 10 years, using <2 MLTCs as reference. Information on health outcomes and service use were extracted for a ten year follow up period (between 01st Jan 2010 and 31st Dec 2019 for UK Biobank and UKHLS, and between 01st Jan 2011 and 31st Dec 2020 for SAIL). Findings: Clustering MLTCs produced largely similar results across different age groups and cohorts. MLTC clusters had distinct associations with health outcomes and service use after accounting for LTC counts, in fully adjusted models. The largest associations with mortality, hospitalisations and GP use in SAIL were observed for the “Pain+” cluster in the age-group 18–36 years (mortality IRR = 4.47, hospitalisation IRR = 1.84; GP use IRR = 2.87) and the “Hypertension, Diabetes & Heart disease” cluster in the age-group 37–54 years (mortality IRR = 4.52, hospitalisation IRR = 1.53, GP use IRR = 2.36). In UK Biobank, the “Cancer, Thyroid disease & Rheumatoid arthritis” cluster in the age group 37–54 years had the largest association with mortality (IRR = 2.47). Cardiometabolic clusters across all age groups, pain/mental health clusters in younger groups, and cancer and pulmonary related clusters in older age groups had higher risk for all outcomes. In UKHLS, MLTC clusters were not significantly associated with higher risk of adverse outcomes, except for the hospitalisation in the age-group 18–36 years. Interpretation: Personalising care around MLTC clusters that have higher risk of adverse outcomes may have important implications for practice (in relation to secondary prevention), policy (with allocation of health care resources), and research (intervention development and targeting), for people living with MLTCs. Funding: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR; Personalised Exercise-Rehabilitation FOR people with Multiple long-term conditions (multimorbidity)—NIHR202020).


Publication metadata

Author(s): Krauth SJ, Steell L, Ahmed S, McIntosh E, Dibben GO, Hanlon P, Lewsey J, Nicholl BI, McAllister DA, Smith SM, Evans R, Ahmed Z, Dean S, Greaves C, Barber S, Doherty P, Gardiner N, Ibbotson T, Jolly K, Ormandy P, Simpson SA, Taylor RS, Singh SJ, Mair FS, Jani BD

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: eClinicalMedicine

Year: 2024

Volume: 74

Print publication date: 01/08/2024

Online publication date: 28/06/2024

Acceptance date: 07/06/2024

Date deposited: 17/07/2024

ISSN (electronic): 2589-5370

Publisher: Elsevier Ltd

URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102703

DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2024.102703

Data Access Statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available from SAIL, UK Biobank and UKHLS project site, subject to successful registration and application process. We have shared the relevant links for applying for data access below. SAIL: https://saildatabank.com/data/apply-to-work-with-the-data/. UK Biobank: https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/enable-your-research/ apply-for-access. UKHLS: https://www.understandingsociety.ac.uk/documentation/ access-data/


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Funding

Funder referenceFunder name
National Institute for Health and Care Research
NIHR202020

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