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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Tatiana Alvares-SanchesORCiD
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Cities promote access to services and opportunities, but are also a main source of pollution, disease and fear of crime, often linked to urban form. Although Health Impact Assessments can help reduce the impact of urban interventions, quantitative methods that consider spatial and temporal scales are still lacking. This study is novel in using machine-learning models to predict four stressors (noise, heat, solar radiation and crime) across an entire city, both in the present and after 12 urban developments were incorporated. Origin-destination models were used at 5000 locations to quantify cumulative exposure at the origin, and on daily walks up to 400m, 1600m and 2400m. Patterns of exposure differed markedly across the city and between stressors: correlations at origins ranged from -0.01 (solar radiation vs crime) to 0.48 (heat vs crime). Stressor levels experienced by individuals that walked were related to exposure at origins, but the similarity decreased as the distance walked increased and depended on the stressor. The impact of future developments also depended on the stressor and the distance walked. For example, heat levels increased at only 10.3% of origins but 46.1% for walked distances of 2400m. In contrast, crime increased at 50.9% of origins but 46.9% for individuals walking 2400m. Developments caused an increase in three/four stressors at 11.6% of origins, indicating the importance of assessing multiple stressors simultaneously. The spatial variability among stressors supports the need for a spatially-explicit approach to modelling environmental and health impacts, and to assessing the impact of new interventions.
Author(s): Alvares-Sanches T, Osborne PE
Publication type: Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)
Publication status: Published
Conference Name: ISES 2022 Annual Meeting
Year of Conference: 2022
Online publication date: 29/09/2022
Acceptance date: 02/04/2018
Publisher: International Society of Exposure Science
URL: https://www.intlexposurescience.org/ises-2022-annual-meeting/
