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Reliable multi-horizon water demand forecasting model: A temporal deep learning approach

Lookup NU author(s): Dr Xiang XieORCiD

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Abstract

Accurate water demand forecasting can help understand water usage dynamics, which has a potential application in water saving and demand management. Despite extensive research, most exiting methods cannot capture long-range dependency of water demand and maintain high-accuracy in multi-horizon forecasting continuously. To address these issues, the focus of this research is primarily on the temporal model for multi-horizon water demand forecasting using deep learning. This research proposes a signal enhancement strategy and develops an attention-based deep learning model. Firstly, the Fourier transform is used for sparse approximation of water demand data, which helps represent the signal more compactly. To enhance the performance of multi-horizon forecasting model, the complex water demand time series is decomposed into trend and seasonal components. Then, an attention mechanism is utilized to learn temporal dependencies within the data, providing assists for multi-horizon water demand forecasting. Furthermore, a comparative study is carried out between the proposed model and the state-of-the-art methods using the water demand data from four usage scenarios. Experimental results suggest that the present model has the ability to produce accurate and robust forecasting, especially for multi-horizon water demand. Therefore, this research has the potential to enhance water resource management in a socioecological context.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Wang K, Xie X, Liu BT, Yu J, Wang ZQ

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Sustainable Cities and Society

Year: 2024

Volume: 112

Print publication date: 01/10/2024

Online publication date: 13/06/2024

Acceptance date: 11/06/2024

ISSN (print): 2210-6707

ISSN (electronic): 2210-6715

Publisher: Elsevier BV

URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2024.105595

DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105595


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