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Surface mass balance modelling of the Juneau Icefield highlights the potential for rapid ice loss by the mid-21st century

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Bethan DaviesORCiD

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Abstract

© 2024 Cambridge University Press. All rights reserved.Plateau icefields are large stores of freshwater, preconditioned to enhanced mass loss due to their gently sloping a ccumulation areas. Accurate modelling of their mass balance is therefore crucial for sea-level rise projections. Here, we use the COupled Snowpackand Ice surface energy and mass-balance model in PYthon (COSIPY) to simulate historical and future mass balance of the Juneau Icefield, Alaska – a high elevation (>1200 m) plateau icefield. We force the model with dynamically downscaled climate simulations, for both pa st and future (RCP 8.5) conditions. The icefield’s mass balance decrea sed from a mean of -0.22 ± 0.38 m w.e. a -1 (1981 to 2019) to -1.52 ± 0.27 m w.e. a -1 (2031 to 2060), with many glaciers shifting from positive to negative mass balances at the start of the 21st century. This mass loss is a ttributed to projected rising air tempera tures and reduced snowfa ll, causing the equilibrium line altitude to rise and triggering a lbedo and melt-elevation feedbacks. These processes exacerbate melt, potentially leading to increased glacier disconnections at icefalls.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Ing RN, Ely JC, Jones JM, Davies BJ

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Journal of Glaciology

Year: 2024

Pages: epub ahead of print

Online publication date: 28/10/2024

Acceptance date: 02/04/2024

ISSN (print): 0022-1430

ISSN (electronic): 1727-5652

Publisher: Cambridge University Press

URL: https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.82

DOI: 10.1017/jog.2024.82

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