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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Fiona MatthewsORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© The Author(s) 2024.Background: We aimed to develop risk tools for dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and diabetes, for adults aged ≥ 65 years using shared risk factors. Methods: Data were obtained from 10 population-based cohorts (N = 41,755) with median follow-up time (years) for dementia, stroke, MI, and diabetes of 6.2, 7.0, 6.8, and 7.4, respectively. Disease-free participants at baseline were included, and 22 risk factors (sociodemographic, medical, lifestyle, laboratory biomarkers) were evaluated. Two risk tools (DemNCD and DemNCD-LR based on Fine and Gray sub-distribution and logistic regression [LR], respectively) were developed and validated. Predictive accuracies of these risk tools were assessed using Harrel’s C-statistics and area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Model calibration was conducted using Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test along calibration plots. Results: Both the DemNCD and DemNCD-LR resulted in similar predictive accuracy for each outcome. The overall AUC (95% CI) for dementia, stroke, MI, and diabetes risk tool were 0·68 (0·65, 0·70), 0·58 (0·54, 0·61), 0·65 (0·61, 0·68), and 0·68 (0·64, 0·72), respectively, for males. For females, these figures were 0·65 (0·63, 0·67), 0·55 (0·52, 0·57), 0·65 (0·62, 0·68), and 0·61 (0·57, 0·65). Conclusions: The DemNCD is the first tool to predict both dementia and multiple cardio-metabolic diseases using comprehensive risk factors and provided similar predictive accuracy to existing risk tools. It has similar predictive accuracy as tools designed for single outcomes in this age-group. DemNCD has the potential to be used in community and clinical settings as it includes self-reported and routinely available clinical measures.
Author(s): Huque MH, Kootar S, Kiely KM, Anderson CS, van Boxtel M, Brodaty H, Sachdev PS, Carlson M, Fitzpatrick AL, Whitmer RA, Kivipelto M, Jorm L, Kohler S, Lautenschlager NT, Lopez OL, Shaw JE, Matthews FE, Peters R, Anstey KJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: BMC Medicine
Year: 2024
Volume: 22
Issue: 1
Print publication date: 01/12/2024
Online publication date: 31/10/2024
Acceptance date: 17/10/2024
Date deposited: 19/11/2024
ISSN (electronic): 1741-7015
Publisher: BioMed Central Ltd
URL: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-024-03711-6
DOI: 10.1186/s12916-024-03711-6
Data Access Statement: No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study
PubMed id: 39482675
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