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Surface urban heat island variations under the 3-decadal urban expansion in China: Patterns and driving factors

Lookup NU author(s): Professor Richard DawsonORCiD, Dr Alistair FordORCiD, Professor Stuart Barr

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Abstract

© 2025 Elsevier LtdIn recent decades, China's multiple cities have expanded rapidly, intensifying urban heat island (UHI) effects. The spatiotemporal patterns of UHI intensity and their driving factors have become a research focus. Some studies focus on machine learning or statistical methods regarding the spatiotemporal patterns of the UHI intensity in multiple cities and their driving factors, with few exploring UHI intensity variations using interpretable neural networks. We calculated the UHI of 31 provincial capital cities across seven physical geographic regions over two decades, analyzed cluster characteristics with Fourier fitting and K-means algorithms, and disclosed their driving factor using the explainable deep learning model (TabNET). Results show that (1) Between 2000 and 2020, the spatial expansion rate of first-tier cities was 176.92 %, while that of second-tier cities reached 197.12 %. (2) 94.62 % of the cities experienced increases in UHI during the summer months, with Urumqi showing the smallest change in UHI across the seasons and Shenyang showing the greatest change. (3) The four distinct UHI patterns observed across 31 Chinese cities can be categorized into six clusters that closely correspond to China's six natural geographical regions, indicating its dominant influence on UHI spatial variation. (4) The geographical location, population, GDP, elevation, month, and vegetation cover are significant drivers of UHI, with weights of 20.3 %, 14 %, 13.3 %, 13.2 %, 12.2 % and 10 %, respectively. Our results visually summarize the regional UHI patterns and disclose driving factors, providing intuitive guidance for mitigating UHI and urban thermal environment optimization.

Publication metadata

Author(s): Yang H, Wu Z, Qiu S, Wu F, Dawson RJ, Ford A, Barr S

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Sustainable Cities and Society

Year: 2025

Volume: 130

Print publication date: 15/07/2025

Online publication date: 14/07/2025

Acceptance date: 13/07/2025

ISSN (print): 2210-6707

ISSN (electronic): 2210-6715

Publisher: Elsevier Ltd

URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2025.106640

DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2025.106640

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