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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Weather regimes and weather patterns, here jointly referred to as circulation types, are used to generate forecasts for a variety of applications, such as energy demand and flood risk. However, there are usually many different choices available for precisely which circulation types to use. Ideally, one would like to use circulation types that are both highly informative for the application and also highly predictable, but in practice, there is often a tradeoff between informativity and predictability. We present a simple, general framework for how to construct a circulation type forecast that optimally balances these factors by segueing between different choices of circulation types at different lead times based on information-theoretic considerations. As an example, we apply this framework to the case of forecasting energy demand in Great British winters. We compare a set of 30 weather patterns produced by the UK Met Office with the much simpler two-state framework consisting of a positive and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regime and show how to optimally combine the two across a winter season.
Author(s): Strommen K, Christensen HM, Bloomfield HC
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Meteorological Applications
Year: 2025
Volume: 32
Issue: 4
Print publication date: 25/08/2025
Online publication date: 25/08/2025
Acceptance date: 08/07/2025
Date deposited: 17/09/2025
ISSN (print): 1350-4827
ISSN (electronic): 1469-8080
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/met.70078
DOI: 10.1002/met.70078
Data Access Statement: The data that support the findings of this study are openly available in Zenodo (Decider vs NAO Regime Forecasts (Version 1). [Dataset] 2025) at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15001098.
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