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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Ka Ming ChanORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Authoritarians’ electoral victories often catch worldwide attention as they are detrimental to global democracy. But despite the salience of their victories, we know little about whether these events abroad change citizens’ satisfaction with democracy (SWD). Building on the transnational learning literature, this research tests two diverging effects regarding the spillover of an authoritarian’s electoral victory. Citizens may be less satisfied with domestic democracy (contagion/domino effect) or see their democracy in a rosier light (benchmark effect). Additionally, because of motivated reasoning, such effects may be heterogeneous among citizens with different ideologies. To test for these expectations, I re-analyse two datasets collected in Europe amid the 2016 US presidential election. Both studies demonstrate a modest benchmark effect, as citizens’ SWD increases after Trump’s unexpected victory. Also, the heterogeneity analysis finds that the benchmark effect is most prominent among citizens who previously voted for socialist/radical left parties or liberal parties. I discuss how these findings enrich the literature on autocratization, transnational learning and satisfaction with democracy.
Author(s): Chan KM
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Political Behavior
Year: 2025
Pages: Epub ahead of print
Online publication date: 18/08/2025
Acceptance date: 22/07/2025
Date deposited: 27/01/2026
ISSN (print): 0190-9320
ISSN (electronic): 1573-6687
Publisher: Springer Nature
URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-025-10071-1
DOI: 10.1007/s11109-025-10071-1
Data Access Statement: The replication files are available at the Political Behavior Dataverse: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KMWN9M.
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