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Lookup NU author(s): Charalampos Ntigkakis, Dr Stephen BirkinshawORCiD, Dr Ross StirlingORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Groundwater models form the basis for investigating subsurface processes that relate togroundwater flow. Urban cover, however, usually inhibits the collection of new subsurfaceor geological data. Therefore, models usually depend on existing, poor-quality, or scarcedatasets. The geological domain is an integral part of any groundwater model, and as such,understanding the model’s sensitivity to the geological interpretation is key to constraininguncertainty. This research uses a recent advancement in mitigating uncertainty in geologicalmodeling to investigate how different geological interpretations affect groundwater modeluncertainty. Using the Ouseburn catchment, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, as a case study,it estimates baseflows and uses them to develop an ensemble of coupled distributedgroundwater recharge and groundwater flow models using SWAc and MODFLOW, andperforms a Monte Carlo analysis on the different model formulations. Results indicatethat even though river baseflows are not highly affected, there is a connection betweensimulated groundwater level sensitivity and areas of high geological uncertainty. As theinterest in the urban subsurface grows, constraining uncertainty in groundwater models isespecially important for urban planning, policy making, water resources, and groundwaterflooding protection. Therefore, constraining uncertainty from geological datasets is key torobust groundwater modeling.
Author(s): Ntigkakis C, Birkinshaw S, Stirling R
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Hydrology
Year: 2026
Volume: 13
Issue: 2
Online publication date: 02/02/2026
Acceptance date: 30/01/2026
Date deposited: 02/02/2026
ISSN (electronic): 2306-5338
Publisher: MDPI AG
URL: https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology13020056
DOI: 10.3390/hydrology13020056
Data Access Statement: No new data were created or analyzed in this study. Data sharing is not applicable to this article.
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