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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Renewable energy deployment in Africa must account for the continent’s pronounced weather variability to ensure a reliable electricity supply. Here, we introduce a weather-aware framework that integrates multi-criteria decision analysis with assessments of meteorological variability to optimize renewable site selection. Optimal solar and wind energy locations are identified not only by their highest average yields but also by evaluating generation variability under major climate oscillations, including the Madden–Julian Oscillation modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation. In addition, novel synoptic regimes are derived through self-organizing map cluster analysis, providing further insight into region-specific drivers of variability. Country-level yield estimates reveal the dominant meteorological patterns shaping renewable output and their frequencies of occurrence. Our findings underscore the necessity of accurately forecasting these regimes to enhance system resilience and inform long-term planning. By explicitly linking generation variability to underlying climate drivers, this framework offers a robust pathway for optimizing renewable energy expansion across Africa.
Author(s): Kurup RS, Bloomfield HC, Tiwari PR, Acharya N, Hesse E
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Nature partner journals Clean Energy
Year: 2026
Volume: 2
Online publication date: 02/02/2026
Acceptance date: 05/01/2026
Date deposited: 06/02/2026
ISSN (electronic): 3059-2232
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
URL: https://doi.org/10.1038/s44406-026-00019-7
DOI: 10.1038/s44406-026-00019-7
Data Access Statement: The ERA5 reanalysis data used in this study are publicly available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store. The derived numerical data supporting the findings of this study, such as the final MSR shapefiles and processed yield statistics, are available from the corresponding author upon request. A full repository containing all supplementary figures generated for every African country (including individual MSR maps and yield plots) is publicly available on GitHub [repo](https:/github.com/rajeevskurup/msr_aor_re_figures).
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