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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Jim Hall, Professor Paul Young
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Road infrastructure is facing increasing flooding risks, causing asset damage and disrupting traffic flows. Effective risk management requires integrated assessments that capture network vulnerability, disruption and recovery. While localised studies have simulated traffic disruptions, national-scale assessments have largely focused on flood exposure rather than systemic disruption analysis. We developed a modelling framework combining process-based flow model of passenger travel-to-work flows and applied it to stress-test Great Britain’s road networks against 17 historical flood events from 1953 to 2024. Results reveal significant variations between direct and indirect damage losses, with single carriageway A roads and suburban bridges emerging as critical points. Notably, indirect losses due to disruption and rerouting can be significantly higher than direct damages depending on hazard event. Early clearance and speed restriction removal are key to mitigating the overall indirect impacts. The model is generalisable and can be applied to stress-test other road networks and flood scenarios worldwide.
Author(s): Li Y, Pant R, Russell T, Thomas F, Hall JW, Oldham P, Lamb R, Young PJ
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Year: 2026
Volume: 155
Print publication date: 01/06/2026
Online publication date: 15/03/2026
Acceptance date: 18/02/2026
Date deposited: 15/04/2026
ISSN (print): 1361-9209
ISSN (electronic): 1879-2340
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2026.105292
DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2026.105292
Data Access Statement: Data will be made available on request.
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