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Lookup NU author(s): Professor Philip Preshaw
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© 2026 The Author(s). Journal of Clinical Periodontology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.Aim: To investigate whether the number of residual probing pocket depths (PPDs) ≥ 5 mm predicts periodontitis progression in non-smoking patients undergoing supportive periodontal care (SPC). Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 121 patients (3028 teeth), with Stage III/IV, Grade B/C periodontitis, who completed active periodontal therapy and were enrolled in SPC. Multivariable logistic regression with inverse probability censoring weighting assessed the association between the number of residual sites with PPD ≥ 5 mm at the start of SPC and disease progression at 1-year and 5-year intervals. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify optimal thresholds for predicting progression. Results: Each additional site with PPD ≥ 5 mm at the start of SPC was associated with higher odds of disease progression (≥ 2 mm PPD increase at any site) after 1 year (adjusted OR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.05–1.29). For periodontal tooth loss, each additional PPD ≥ 5 mm site increased the odds by 11% over 5 years. ROC analysis suggested that ≥ 6 residual sites provided the best discrimination for predicting 1-year PD progression (AUC: 0.73). Conclusion: Six or more residual PPDs ≥ 5 mm at SPC were associated with short-term disease progression, although the performance was modest.
Author(s): Tay JRH, Ng E, Siow DSF, Zhan SJ, Saffari SE, Lopez R, Preshaw PM
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Journal of Clinical Periodontology
Year: 2026
Issue: ePub ahead of Print
Online publication date: 06/04/2026
Acceptance date: 24/03/2026
Date deposited: 22/04/2026
ISSN (print): 0303-6979
ISSN (electronic): 1600-051X
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc
URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jcpe.70126
DOI: 10.1111/jcpe.70126
Data Access Statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available in Supporting Information of this article. All R codes used for statistical analyses are available at github.com/jrzhan07/NDC_ ResidualPockets_ SPC.
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