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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Anna MurgatroydORCiD, Professor Jim Hall
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
© 2026 Crown copyright and The Author(s). Water and Environment Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of CIWEM. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the King's Printer for Scotland. Groundwater makes an important contribution to public water supplies, yet the dynamics of groundwater availability are often simplified in large-scale water resource assessments. This study addresses that challenge on a national scale in England by integrating an empirically based groundwater supply model with a national-scale water resource system simulation model. Through comparison of dynamic and steady groundwater representation and the use of a large-ensemble climate dataset, we illustrate the contribution of groundwater to system supply and performance at a national scale and highlight regional differences in response. The south-east showed particular sensitivity to groundwater flow: In the far-future scenario, the median number of days with restrictions increased by 40% following the introduction of our dynamic groundwater model, compared to simulations based on licensed groundwater yields. Our results emphasise the importance of dynamic representation of groundwater supplies in large-scale water resource assessments.
Author(s): Pugh R, Murgatroyd A, Rowan-Robinson R, Hall J
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Water and Environment Journal
Year: 2026
Pages: Epub ahead of print
Online publication date: 15/05/2026
Acceptance date: 20/04/2026
Date deposited: 26/05/2026
ISSN (print): 1747-6585
ISSN (electronic): 1747-6593
Publisher: John Wiley and Sons Inc.
URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/wej.70064
DOI: 10.1111/wej.70064
Data Access Statement: The weather@home climate sequences can be downloaded from the Centre of Environmental Data Analysis (https://doi.org/10.5285/0cea8d7aca57427fae92241348ae9b03). CEH-GEAR climate data can be downloaded from the UK CEH Environmental Information Data Centre (10.5285/dbf13dd5-90cd-457a-a986-f2f9dd97e93c). The DECIPHeR flow series is available at 10.5523/bris.2pkv9oxgfzvts235zrui7xz00g. Hydrogeological data for the United Kingdom can be downloaded from the British Geological Survey (https://www.bgs.ac.uk/datasets/hydrogeology-625k). Historic abstraction and licensing data was provided under licence from the Environment Agency. The WREW model and associated data cannot be made available because of commercial limitations by English water companies.
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