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© 2026 Elsevier LtdGeometrically multiscale nature of material properties and geometrical parameters coupled with multi-source uncertainties lead to significant challenges to accurately predict scatters in the mechanical performance of composite bolted joints. This paper proposes a multi-scale hybrid reliability analysis method based on a Kriging model to quantify the probabilistic strength of composite bolted joints. The method establishes a modularized and automated integrated analysis framework, which sequentially integrates progressive damage analysis, sample set generation, surrogate model construction, and random-interval hybrid reliability assessment. This framework aims to build quantitative relationships between the uncertainties in constituent material properties, geometric parameters across scales, and the macroscopic structural reliability. A numerical case study on a typical double-lap single-bolt composite laminate joint is conducted. The proposed method is compared with the Monte Carlo Simulation method, demonstrating its capability for efficient and accurate reliability assessment of structures under complex uncertainties. Furthermore, utilizing this analytical framework, the influence mechanism of parameter dispersion on the microscopic failure of the joint structure is preliminarily investigated.
Author(s): Zhang Z, Zhou X, Gosling PD, Wu W, Ban X
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Composite Structures
Year: 2026
Volume: 389
Print publication date: 01/06/2026
Online publication date: 08/05/2026
Acceptance date: 06/05/2026
ISSN (print): 0263-8223
ISSN (electronic): 1879-1085
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compstruct.2026.120437
DOI: 10.1016/j.compstruct.2026.120437
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