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Understanding the effectiveness of active travel policy portfolios with agent-based modelling

Lookup NU author(s): Dr David Alvarez CastroORCiD, Dr Alistair FordORCiD, Professor Roberto PalacinORCiD, Professor Philip JamesORCiD

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).


Abstract

© 2026 The Authors.Transport decarbonisation is a major challenge that requires the implementation of effective policies by local and national governments. This paper simulates mobility policies intended to effect a modal shift from private car to active modes (i.e., cycling and walking), using an agent-based transport simulation framework (MATSim). A set of urban mobility policies aiming to change the built environment and mobility behaviour is defined, simulated and assessed in the Tyne and Wear region of England. Results obtained show that economic rewards (e.g. £0.15 subsidy per kilometre walked or cycled) and penalties (daily £2.50 charge when using cars) are effective in shifting individuals from private car (7%-points and 14%-points change respectively) to active modes (10%-points and 4%-points). Furthermore, effectiveness is greater when several policies are combined, achieving a 13%-points car reduction and 22%-points increase in active modes when the economic rewards are implemented in conjunction with a cycle path improvement scheme; and a 18%-points reduction in car use and a 12%-point increase in active modes when the economic penalties are combined with cycle paths. Further analyses are conducted to quantify the impacts of policies based on the distance travelled by mode of transport, the geospatial distribution of cycling routes and economic benefits.


Publication metadata

Author(s): Alvarez Castro D, Ford A, Palacin R, James P, Ziemke D

Publication type: Article

Publication status: Published

Journal: Transport Policy

Year: 2026

Volume: 187

Print publication date: 01/10/2026

Online publication date: 25/06/2026

Acceptance date: 24/06/2026

Date deposited: 13/07/2026

ISSN (print): 0967-070X

ISSN (electronic): 1879-310X

Publisher: Elsevier

URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104266

DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104266

Data Access Statement: The authors do not have permission to share data


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Funding

Funder referenceFunder name
EP/S023577/1EPSRC

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