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Lookup NU author(s): Dr Anna MurgatroydORCiD, Dr Hannah BloomfieldORCiD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Infrastructure resilience to environmental change is critical for maintaining the delivery of essential services to our society, including power generation, water supply, transport and telecommunication. Computational modelling has become integral to infrastructure planning and management, enabling the exploration of system interdependencies and the testing of adaptation strategies against unprecedented conditions. However, infrastructure model outputs are conditional on a range of uncertain assumptions about the system drivers and properties, both in the present day and in the future under climate change. In this article, we show how global sensitivity analysis can be used to consistently quantify and attribute the uncertainty in infrastructure model outputs as a consequence of input uncertainties, using two examples from the energy and water sector in the United Kingdom (UK). We find that dominant uncertainties vary case by case, as does the relative importance of climate uncertainty. We argue that structured uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be incorporated more consistently across infrastructure modelling sectors to support resilient infrastructure design.
Author(s): Salwey S, Murgatroyd A, Bloomfield HC, Coxon G, Pianosi F
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Climate Resilience and Sustainability
Year: 2026
Volume: 5
Issue: 2
Print publication date: 01/12/2026
Online publication date: 20/08/2026
Acceptance date: 06/08/2026
Date deposited: 25/08/2026
ISSN (electronic): 2692-4587
Publisher: Wiley
URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.70059
DOI: 10.1002/cli2.70059
Data Access Statement: The code to implement a range of global sensitivity analysis methods, including PAWN, is available at https://github.com/SAFEtoolbox/SAFE- python . The code to apply GSA to the wind power model and repli- cate results presented in this article is available at https://github.com/ SAFEtoolbox/SAFE- on- DAFNI . The code to apply GSA to the Northum- brian water system cannot be made available because of commercial limitations by English water companies.
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