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Lookup NU author(s): Emeritus Professor Pratyush Sen
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Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored. © 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd.
Author(s): Sen P, Tan JKG, Spencer D
Publication type: Article
Publication status: Published
Journal: Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Year: 1999
Volume: 64
Issue: 1
Pages: 73-87
Print publication date: 01/04/1999
ISSN (print): 0951-8320
ISSN (electronic): 1879-0836
Publisher: Elsevier Ltd
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(98)00056-8
DOI: 10.1016/S0951-8320(98)00056-8
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